ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG BERDAMPAK PADA RISIKO DAN KETIDAKPASTIAN PERMINTAAN JALAN TOL DI INDONESIA
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.22441/jtm.v6i2.1194Abstract
Pemerintah saat ini tengah mencanangkan berbagai pembangunan infrastruktur termasuk jalan tol. Namun, rencana pembangunan tersebut tidak didukung oleh dana yang memadai sehingga dibutuhkan peran serta badan usaha melalui skema Kerjasama Pemerintah dan Badan Usaha (KPBU). Lebih lanjut, risiko dan ketidakpastian yang besar didalam investasi jalan tol mengurangi minat badan usaha untuk ikut berpartisipasi. Salah satu risiko paling signifikan, sulit diprediksi dan sulit dikendalikan adalah risiko permintaan, i.e. volume lalu lintas. Berdasarkan hal tersebut, maka penelitian ini melakukan identifikasi profil volume lalu lintas beberapa jalan tol di Indonesia untuk delapan tahun terakhir, identifkasi faktor-faktor yang berdampak terhadap risiko dan ketidakpastian volume lalu lintas tersebut dilanjutkan dengan pembobotan faktor. Pembobotan faktor dilakukan dengan menggunakan analisis Skala Likert dan metoda Analitical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Hasil analisis kedua metoda akan danalisis kembali secara deskriptif sehingga mendapatkan kesimpulan yang lebih matang. Profil volume lalu lintas didapatkan dari laporan badan usaha jalan tol tahun 2008-2015. Sementara itu, faktor-faktor yang berdampak terhadap risiko dan ketidakpastian volume lalu lintas jalan tol di Indonesia yang menjadi variable penelitian didapatkan dari hasil kajian literatur penelitian terdahulu baik di dalam maupun di luar negeri serta validasi terhadap pakar. Melalui penelitian ini diharapkan Badan Usaha Jalan Tol (BUJT) dan Pemerintah (Penanggung Jawab Proyek Kerjasama-PJPK) mendapatkan gambaran mengenai faktor-faktor yang berdampak terhadap ketidakpastian volume lalu lintas jalan tol di Indonesia sehingga memudahkan dalam melakukan mitigasi risiko dan ketidakpastian dengan lebih terperinci serta sebagai dasar pertimbangan dalam pengambilan keputusan. Pada gilirannya, hasil yang diperoleh dapat meningkatkan minat BUJT dalam berinvestasi sehingga rencana pemerintah dapat berjalan dengan sukses dan meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional.Downloads
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