Peramalan Jumlah Ekspor Produk Ikan, Krustasea, dan Invertebrata Air Indonesia dengan Metode Autoregressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.22441/pasti.2023.v17i2.010Keywords:
forecasting, ARIMA, demand, export, fishery productsAbstract
Fenomena saat ini adalah 25% angka kemiskinan penduduk Indonesia merupakan para nelayan dan 53% penduduk pesisir pantai hidup di bawah garis kemiskinan. Saat ini pemerintah melakukan stimulus untuk dapat meningkatkan taraf ekonomi para nelayan salah satunya dengan meningkatkan budidaya perikanan untuk ekspor. Berdasarkan data, meskipun demand produk perikanan indonesia diminati di 175 negara di dunia, hanya 3.5% dari seluruh demand dunia yang baru dapat dipenuhi oleh Indonesia. Permasalahan terkait belum terpenuhinya permintaan pasar sebesar 96,5% mengharuskan Indonesia lebih siap baik dari sisi perencanaan maupun strategi yang akan dilakukan. Salah satu caranya adalah dengan melakukan peramalan permintaan. Pada penelitian kali ini bertujuan untuk melakukan peramalan jumlah produksi Indonesia untuk dapat memenuhi kebutuhan dunia di tahun 2022 dengan metode ARIMA. Dari hasil pengujian diketahui bahwa model terbaik adalah ARIMA (1,0,0) dan SARIMA (12,0,24) dan dilakukan peramalan dari Mei 2022 hingga Oktober 2022.
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