PERAMALAN PENJUALAN TEH HIJAU DENGAN METODE ARIMA (STUDI KASUS PADA PT. MK)
Keywords:
teh hijau, model, peramalan, error, ARIMAAbstract
Peramalan merupakan tahapan awal dalam kegiatan perencanaan produksi yang fungsinya adalah sebagai dasar dalam merencanakan kegiatan produksi selanjutnya. Kehandalan sebuah metode peramalan ditentukan dengan menghitung nilai simpangan (error) hasil peramalan dengan nilai sebenarnya. Metode ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) merupakan salah satu metode peramalan jangka menengah yang menghasilkan nilai ramalan yang cukup baik dibandingkan dengan metode lainnya. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk membuktikan asumsi di atas dan juga untuk menentukan nilai peramalan periode selanjutnya dengan objek yang dijadikan sebagai studi kasus adalah PT MK yang memproduksi teh hijau. Data yang digunakan adalah data periode Januari 2012 sampai dengan Desember 2016, dengan software Minitab sebagai alat bantu perhitungan. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwasanya model yang tepat dalam meramalkan penjualan di PT MK adalah model ARIMA (2,2,4). Perbandingan nilai error model ARIMA (2,2,4) dilakukan dengan metode peramalan lainnya yaitu Metode Trend Linier dan Kuadratis. Hasil perbandingan juga menunjukkan bahwasanya metode ARIMA masih yang terbaik. Hasil peramalan juga menghasilkan nilai peramalan untuk periode satu tahun berikutnya.
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