Penerapan Decision tree dalam pengambilan keputusan untuk pemain Texas Holdem Poker

Prastika Indriyanti, Muhamad Fazalika Hismawan, Mujiono .

Abstract


Abstract

 

Texas holdem poker is a popular poker game. This game is played by millions of people every day, both to find additional income or just for fun. But in fact not everyone who plays poker with these goals gets according to what they have planned. Some people actually experience losses after playing. They unconsciously develop the logic of gambler's fallacy that causes them to play poker without using strategy.  This research made a system that can prove the defect of gambler's fallacy and made a tool for playing poker. The processed dataset is a dataset containing information of cards used in poker and their probability of occurrence. The method used in this research are iterative deepening search tree and decision tree. The main results of this research is a tool that can provide insight as a basis for decision making. However, this tool has not been able to prove its capabilities in helping to increase the winning percentage, so that further study is needed. In addition, this study also shows that playing with gambler's fallacy logic only gives 48.13% wins of 6,000 trials. These results proved that using gambler's fallacy logic in playing poker is a mistake.

Keywords – Tree, Poker, Probability, Gambler’s Fallacy

 

Abstrak

 

Texas holdem poker merupakan permainan poker yang populer. Permainan ini dimainkan oleh jutaan orang setiap harinya, baik untuk mencari penghasilan tambahan ataupun hanya untuk bersenang-senang. Namun pada kenyataanya tidak semua orang yang bermain poker dengan tujuan tersebut mendapatkan sesuai dengan apa yang mereka rencanakan. Sebagian orang justru mengalami kerugian pasca bermain. Mereka tanpa sadar mengembangkan logika berpikir gambler’s fallacy yang mengakibatkan bermain tanpa strategi. Makalah ini menyajikan hasil studi penerapan pohon keputusan dan pohon pencarian untuk membuktikan kecacatan gambler’s fallacy dan membantu dalam bermain poker. Dataset yang diolah adalah dataset yang berisi informasi kartu-kartu yang dipakai dalam permainan serta probabilitas kemunculannya. Metode yang digunakan pada penelitian ini adalah metode pencarian pada struktur tree dan metode pohon keputusan. Hasil utama dari penelitian ini adalah alat bantu yang mampu memberikan insight sebagai dasar pengambilan keputusan.  Namun, alat bantu ini belum bisa dibuktikan kapabilitasnya dalam membantu menaikkan persentase kemenangan sehingga diperlukan studi lanjutan. Selain itu, penelitian ini juga menunjukkan bahwa bermain dengan logika gambler’s fallacy hanya memberikan 48.13% kemenangan dari 6000 percobaan. Hasil tersebut membuktikan bahwa menggunakan logika gambler’s fallacy dalam bermain poker merupakan suatu kesalahan.

Kata kunci – Tree, Poker, Probabilitas, Gambler’s Fallacy

 


Keywords


Tree; Poker; Probability; Gambler’s Fallacy

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.22441//fifo.2020.v12i2.006

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