Perancangan Proses Produksi Continuous Flow dengan Tingkat Fluktuasi Tinggi untuk Meminimalisasi Risiko Bullwhip Effect dengan Pendekatan Monte Carlo

Istantyo Yuwono; Afrigh Fajar Rosyidiin

doi:10.22441/pasti.2026.v20i2.008

Authors

Istantyo Yuwono Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Surabaya, Indonesia
Afrigh Fajar Rosyidiin Univeritas 17 Agustus 1945, Indonesia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.22441/pasti.2026.v20i2.008

Keywords:

Bullwhip, Monte Carlo, Production, Cost, Simulation

Abstract

A smooth and seamless production process is every company's dream, especially in the manufacturing industry. One external factor that can hinder the smoothness of production is the bullwhip effect, which cannot be predicted when it will occur. Therefore, continuous planning and monitoring are required to prevent the bullwhip effect from happening. Production processes in flour industry require a significant amount of capital and need to be well-designed to minimize production costs. There are many ways to design minimum production costs, such as optimizing labour efficiency, machines, energy, and time and eliminating some controllable external factors. The efficiency of production factors plays a crucial role in the company, and companies expect maximum profits with minimal production costs. Monte Carlo simulation can mimic the behaviour of uncertainty from certain events. The simulation results show that production for T1 is 570,000 tons, while for T2 it is 1,800,000 tons.

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Author Biography

Istantyo Yuwono, Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Surabaya

Industrial Engineering Department

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