Risk-based predictive maintenance of medium voltage network switching equipment using analytical hierarchy process as an analytical tool

Abstract

Predictive maintenance became crucial in enhancing the reliability and efficiency of electrical systems, especially for Medium Voltage Network (MVN) switching equipment, which played a key role in electricity distribution. This study aimed to develop a risk-based predictive maintenance model for MVN switching equipment using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) for maintenance prioritization, along with Z-score and Monte Carlo simulation methods to evaluate risk likelihood and impact. The Z-score method assessed the probability of risks occurring, revealing probabilities exceeding 90% for certain equipment, such as UP2D.2025.C4, with a probability of 93.12%. The Monte Carlo simulation measured the potential impact of these risks, showing severe consequences for various equipment. For example, UP2D.2025.C1 had a mean of 28.51 and a standard deviation of 3.50, while UP2D.2025.C8 had a standard deviation of 33.17, with an impact over 61.53%. AHP was used to assign priority weights to components based on criteria such as equipment age, operational condition, and failure history. The analysis indicated that the Lightning Arrester had the highest priority for maintenance at 26.04%, followed by Fuse Cutout at 20.62%, and Pole Mounted Circuit Breaker at 11.15%. This research was expected to significantly contribute to developing more efficient and effective maintenance strategies for electrical systems, particularly in the electricity distribution sector.