Integrasi Metode ARIMA, Double Exponential Smoothing, dan Economic Order Quantity untuk Pengendalian Persediaan Kemasan Kardus pada Perusahaan Pengolahan Kelapa Sawit

Nadya Rishelin; Indah Kurnia Ramadhani; Nia Arfina Foci

doi:10.22441/pasti.2026.v20i2.001

Authors

Nadya Rishelin Politeknik ATI Padang, Indonesia
Indah Kurnia Ramadhani Politeknik ATI Padang, Indonesia
Nia Arfina Foci Universitas Bengkulu, Indonesia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.22441/pasti.2026.v20i2.001

Keywords:

Forecasting, Inventory, ARIMA, DES, EOQ

Abstract

The current cardboard packaging procurement policy at the palm oil processing company involves a high ordering frequency of 53 times per year, without considering actual demand projections or establishing safety stock, potentially reducing inventory control effectiveness. This study compares the forecasting accuracy of the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) models in predicting cardboard packaging demand and integrates the best-performing model with the Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) approach to establish an optimal inventory policy. Weekly historical demand data were analyzed through pattern identification, stationarity testing, ARIMA and DES modelling, and forecast performance evaluation using Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), followed by EOQ calculation. The ARIMA (2,1,2) model outperformed DES, yielding an MSE of 17,500,398 and a MAPE of 23.7%. The demand variability index (V) of 0.0111 indicates a static demand pattern, confirming the suitability of EOQ. The proposed EOQ policy results in an optimal order quantity of 39,555 units with 14 orders annually, reducing inventory costs by IDR 6,450,711 (48.54%) compared with the company's current policy. These findings confirm that integrating an accurate forecasting model with EOQ enhances inventory control effectiveness in the palm oil processing company.

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