PRILAKU HARGA KOMODITAS TIMAH DI PASAR BURSA KOMODITAS
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.22441/jimb.v2i1.3695Kata Kunci:
Timah, Harga, Bursa Berjangka Komditas, ARIMAAbstrak
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji prilaku harga komoditas timah di pasar bursa komoditas
berjangka. Secara khusus penelitian ini bertujuan untuk membuat model peramalan harga komoditas
timah di pasar bursa komoditas yang saat ini berfluktuatif. Dengan adanya peramalan harga ini dapat
membantu pihak manajemen memutuskan dalam jual-beli komoditas timah. Metode yang digunakan
dalam penelitian ini adalah deskriptif analisis. Analisis yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini meliputi
metode: Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) yang digunakan untuk membuat model peramalan. Hasil analisis
menunjukkan model ARIMA (0,1,2) merupakan yang paling sesuai untuk peramalan harga timah dunia
dengan persamaan model Yt = 0,45 - 0,1991e
. Data ramalan lima hari mendatang dibandingkan dengan
data real menunjukkan hasil yang mirip. Model yang sesuai akan dapat mengetahui prilaku harga
komoditas timah dunia agar pengusaha timah dapat mengatur strategi yang sesuai dalam menghadapi
fluktuasi harga timah yang terjadi di dunia.
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