Financial Early Warning Signal, Stock Prices, and Bankruptcy Risk: Evidence from Listed Energy Companies in Indonesia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.22441/jurnal_mix.2026.v16i2.020Keywords:
Signalling Theory, Early Warning Systems, Company’s Insolvency, Financial Distress, Stock PriceAbstract
Objectives: This study investigates whether financial and non-financial early warning indicators impact stock prices and insolvency risk, and whether stock prices mediate the relationship between these indicators. The study is driven by the significance of investors’ comprehension of economic health in the investment decision-making process
Methodology: This study applies a quantitative approach using secondary data from 15 listed energy companies, during 2018 to 2023. The study specifically utilises Generalized Structural Equation Modelling (GSEM) to handle the simultaneous estimation of direct and indirect effects in a panel data setting.
Finding: The results reveal a significant market failure: while Solvency, Profitability, and Litigation History directly predict insolvency, Stock Price fails to mediate these relationships. This rejection of the mediation hypothesis indicates that the market is 'noisy' and decoupled from internal fundamentals, driven instead by global 'fossilflation' sentiments.
Conclusion: Consequently, stock prices are proven unreliable as early warning signals, suggesting stakeholders should prioritise direct monitoring of fundamental ratios over market valuation.
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